March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

The milkman delivers again

Better from both segments — capturing market share. MTM EBITDA EUR 175m — adj. EPS ~NOK 3.4. 30% discount to peers — targets point to NOK 55/sh.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Higher-than-expected Q1 margins

Elopak reported strong Q1 results, with the EBITDA margin in its European operations beating our and consensus forecast. We see the potential for an increased group EBITDA margin target at the CMD in September. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7%, and in turn our target price to NOK37 (34). At the same time, we believe margins are at the high end of normalised levels, and struggle to see material upside potential from here. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~12x, and with limited organic top-line growth prospects and an implied dividend yield of ~4% in the current high interest rate environment, w...

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (7.7) on our increased estimates including higher dividends.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Limited news on EU approval

The Q1 report was in line with expectations, with a small beat on the operating loss. The cash position at end-Q1 was nearly SEK1bn. There was limited news on the delayed EU approval (waiting on a SAG meeting). Eisai recently guided for Leqembi sales of JPY56.5bn (year to March 2025), implying royalties to BioArctic of cSEK360m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK350 target price.

Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

The weak Q1 results, with sales and adj. EBIT below our estimates, were largely due to a significant slowdown in Educational products. We have marginally revised our 2024–2026e on the strong management outlook for 2024, and reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price. We believe the weak share price reaction on the report presents an opportunity for long-term investors.