Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - New financial targets and buybacks

Essity this morning announced new annual financial targets, including a maintained organic growth target of >3% annually (despite Vinda having been a positive contributor), an adj. EBITA margin of >15%, above consensus, and a SEK3bn share buyback programme. If we apply a 15% margin to the 2025–2026e consensus sales figures, this implies consensus should come up c8–10%. We expect a positive share price reaction on the new targets and share buyback programme.

Fresh paper cuts - newsprint benefits

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK45.00) - Looking for stability

We expect Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 July) to be similar to Q1’s, and forecast 4% organic gross profit growth (3% in Q1). We are largely in line with consensus on sales, gross profit and EBITDA, and estimate stable cash-flow generation of SEK400m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK45 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Co-morbidities in focus at ADA

Focus at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference on 21–24 June was on the health benefits of treating obesity and the positive impact on comorbidities. Based on our observations, we expect broad-based penetration of GLP-1 drugs in the US, with prescribers ranging from cardiologists to pulmonologists. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,200 (1,100), mainly on higher forecast GLP-1 sales.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK127.00) - Set for continued growth in AUM

We forecast Q2 PTP before amortisation of NOK2,163m on strong AUM growth, and a NOK1.1bn gain on the sale of Storebrand Helseforsikring (results due at 07:30 CET on 12 July). The higher AUM base due to Asset Management and Unit Linked reserves should raise Savings’ PTP, while the ongoing repricing supports growth in Insurance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK127 (125), finding the stock attractively valued at a 2025e P/E of ~9x, adjusted for the expected capital release from Guaranteed reserves.