Insights from the CMD

Thoughts ahead of CMD

Riding on price tailwinds from Q2e

Solid Q1, but with adj. EBIT 3% below due to net recruitments. Fine-tuned sales, but '24e-'26e EBIT down 4-3% on higher opex. Share to benefit from improved organic growth: up to BUY (Hold).

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK45.00) - Looking for stability

We expect Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 July) to be similar to Q1’s, and forecast 4% organic gross profit growth (3% in Q1). We are largely in line with consensus on sales, gross profit and EBITDA, and estimate stable cash-flow generation of SEK400m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK45 target price.

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1200.00) - Co-morbidities in focus at ADA

Focus at the 2024 American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference on 21–24 June was on the health benefits of treating obesity and the positive impact on comorbidities. Based on our observations, we expect broad-based penetration of GLP-1 drugs in the US, with prescribers ranging from cardiologists to pulmonologists. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK1,200 (1,100), mainly on higher forecast GLP-1 sales.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK127.00) - Set for continued growth in AUM

We forecast Q2 PTP before amortisation of NOK2,163m on strong AUM growth, and a NOK1.1bn gain on the sale of Storebrand Helseforsikring (results due at 07:30 CET on 12 July). The higher AUM base due to Asset Management and Unit Linked reserves should raise Savings’ PTP, while the ongoing repricing supports growth in Insurance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK127 (125), finding the stock attractively valued at a 2025e P/E of ~9x, adjusted for the expected capital release from Guaranteed reserves.