Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK85.00) - Set for acceleration quarters
We find Fortnox’s Q1 42% adj. EPS growth YOY impressive in light of the macro drag, limited price tailwinds, and step up in investments. In-line underlying results mean our 2024e adj. EBIT is broadly unchanged (-1%), leaving our 2024–2025e EBIT 7–11% above Bloomberg consensus. The choke point for bears was negative reported FCF, while we believe FCF adjusted for calendar effects and its lending business showed a 34.9% margin. We reiterate our BUY and SEK85 target price, and see potential triggers in H2 with improved FCF, easier comparables, potential macro tailwinds, and traction in the Fortnox Card launch.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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