Riding on price tailwinds from Q2e

Solid Q1, but with adj. EBIT 3% below due to net recruitments. Fine-tuned sales, but '24e-'26e EBIT down 4-3% on higher opex. Share to benefit from improved organic growth: up to BUY (Hold).

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK85.00) - Set for acceleration quarters

We find Fortnox’s Q1 42% adj. EPS growth YOY impressive in light of the macro drag, limited price tailwinds, and step up in investments. In-line underlying results mean our 2024e adj. EBIT is broadly unchanged (-1%), leaving our 2024–2025e EBIT 7–11% above Bloomberg consensus. The choke point for bears was negative reported FCF, while we believe FCF adjusted for calendar effects and its lending business showed a 34.9% margin. We reiterate our BUY and SEK85 target price, and see potential triggers in H2 with improved FCF, easier comparables, potential macro tailwinds, and traction in the Fortno...

3% adj. EBIT miss on higher costs

Danske Bank (Buy, TP: DKK235.00) - Distributions slow, but approaching

Helped by low loan losses and modest cost inflation, Danske Bank reported a Q1 ROE of 12.9%. Noting one less interest day, NII fell 0.7% QOQ adjusted for reported one-offs. While down ~30bp QOQ following the buyback programme announced in February, the bank’s CET1 ratio remains strong at 18.5% versus its >16% target. We have trimmed our target price to DKK235 (237), but with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~6.9x, we find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly