Fortnox Minor model adjustments
Ahead of Fortnox’s Q2 results (due at 08:30 CET on 12 July), we have trimmed our 2024e EPS by 1% to factor in calibrated growth assumptions and higher opex from recent hiring. We do not consider these changes to be material and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price to SEK84 (85).On course for a re-rating in H2. Following recent criticism in the Financial Times, we believe Fortnox will have to beat consensus numbers (we are in line with Bloomberg consensus on Q2e EBIT, but 6% above for 2024e). As calendar swings could once again hit its FCF conversion in Q2, we see the potential for a re-rating in H2e, with sales, EBIT, and FCF growth acceleration to 33%, 47%, and 127% YOY, respectively, on a macro recovery, easier comparables, and a broader launch of new products (Fortnox Card), presenting incremental growth opportunities.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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