Fortnox Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates ahead of the Q3 results (2022e EBIT lowered by 1%, 2023e unchanged). We see Fortnox as one of the highest-quality B2B software stocks in Sweden, offering defensive high-growth exposure at superior margins and unit economics regardless of economic backdrop. We expect EPS growth from 2022-2025e to more than offset multiples contraction, but acknowledge that net customer intake and SME bankruptcies could be in focus in the coming quarters. However, we are not concerned given the mission-critical nature of its ERP software. We do not consider these estimate changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK68 target price.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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