EQT + CoB bid to take FNOX private

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK95.00) - Positive inflection in organic growth

The best way to sum up Fortnox’s solid Q4 results was 25% organic sales growth at a 46% OpFCF margin despite a recessionary backdrop. We believe recent price increases and a heightened monetisation focus de-risks our above-consensus view for 2025e, while improved macroeconomic conditions would lend further usage tailwinds. As we expect to see EBIT growth accelerate to 35–40% YOY in the coming quarters from 30% YOY in 2024, the stock should re-rate, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK95 (82) and our forecasts are broadly unchanged.

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - In a good place with excess cash

Despite escalating macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain convinced that Billerud has healthy pricing power in Europe and is in a good position to increase its capacity utilisation for its well-performing US business. Our 2025e earnings are largely unchanged, but due to FX (much stronger SEK) and a sharp reduction of free CO2 allowances from 2026, we have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by c8%. We continue to see an attractive investment case, as our forecasts translate into appealing multiples, while the balance sheet is heavily overcapitalised. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to ...

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff

While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to EUR36 (38).

Gubra - Initiation of coverage - Punching above its weight class

Gubra is a contract research organisation (CRO) and biotech company with a focus on obesity and metabolic diseases. We see the lead asset, GUBamy, as a competitive amylin, offering GLP-1-like efficacy, while its 11-day half-life profile promotes sustained weight loss. Based on our market model, we expect its obesity franchise to reach a 2.7% share of the cUSD229bn market by 2044e, driving long-term value. We initiate coverage with a BUY and DKK750 target price.