Fortnox (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn
This morning, EQT X and First Kraft (Olof Hallrup, Fortnox’s chairman of the board, who owns 18.9% of the shares) announced a take-private offer for Fortnox at SEK90/share or SEK58bn (38% premium to the last close, 13% premium to its recent highs in February). Fortnox’s board of directors recommends the bid, and the consortium said the deal is “best and final” (the consortium will not raise the price), corresponding to a 2025–2026e EV/EBIT of 47–35x and P/E of 61–46x on our numbers. The acceptance period runs from 14 May to 18 June 2025. The press release includes no comment whether the institutions (AMF 5.8% ownership, Swedbank Robur 5.8%, Vor Capital 5.0%) support the deal. As a reference, Visma attempted to acquire Fortnox in March 2016 (at a market cap of SEK1.4bn, while today’s bid corresponds to a 41x higher market cap), which major owner Olof Hallrup opposed then. Given Carnegie’s role in the transaction, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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