Genco Shipping & Trading Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 report and the guidance. We have raised our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 4%, but remain cautious on the medium-term outlook for dry bulk. Genco’s moderate cash-breakeven rate and conservative 8% market-adjusted leverage partly shield it from potentially deteriorating freight markets. Its financial flexibility could allow for through-the-cycle distributions and potential accretive transactions. However, on elevated asset values, we find Genco fairly valued (implying a 0.8x P/NAV), and reasonably aligned with the dry bulk peer group. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We have raised our target price from USD22.6 to USD22.7.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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