reports
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD15.10) - Attractive discount
We have not changed our muted stance on the near-term outlook for the dry bulk segment, and see ~30% downside risk to current asset valuations on the prevailing 1-year TCs. However, Genco’s close to 50% discount to underlying values (EV/GAV 0.53x) seems overdone and represents an attractive entry point, we believe. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but have lowered our target price to USD15.1 (15.4).
- Jørgen Lian
Another abrupt change
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
‘The times they are a-changin’
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD15.40) - Solid footing; demandi...
We continue to see challenging fundamentals for dry bulk near-term and downside risk to elevated asset valuations. However, Genco’s ~40% discount to underlying values compares favourably to its less discounted peers and removes much of the downside risk, we believe. Also, using its solid financial position and flexibility, we expect the company to sustain dividends through what looks likely to be a challenging H1. In sum, we still see the risk/reward as balanced and reiterate our HOLD. We have l...
- Jørgen Lian
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD15.60) - Not out of the woods y...
The share price is down 18% since mid-November (now trading at 0.57x P/NAV), thus realising some of the downside risks to our dry bulk sector outlook. However, near-term, we still expect the stock to be weighed down by deteriorating asset values, soft freight markets and downward revisions to consensus. Hence, we see the risk/reward as largely balanced and reiterate our HOLD, while we have reduced our target price to USD15.6 (17.6).
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD17.60) - Solid, but no escaping...
Our cautious view on dry bulk is somewhat offset by Genco’s favourable risk profile, with low financial leverage and a sizeable discount to underlying asset values at an EV/GAV of 0.63x. However, we struggle to see any positive share-price triggers near- to medium-term, but do see material downside risk to asset valuations decoupling from underlying rates. Hence, we reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to USD17.6 (17.8).
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD18.20) - Valuation reflects clo...
We see clouds on the horizon for dry bulk on concerns about China import demand, with its raw-material-heavy sectors potentially facing challenges, and 15-year-high asset values in a mediocre freight market. However, we believe much of this risk is offset for Genco by its share price implying a c40% discount to asset values and prospects of a healthy long-term market balance with a still-limited orderbook. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to USD18.2 (22.7).
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD22.70) - Strong, but for how lo...
We expect the dry bulk market to soften once what we view as unsustainable demand from China normalises, as the struggling property sector becomes evident. In this scenario, we see material downside risk to the currently elevated asset values underpinning share valuations. Hence, we believe downside risks outweigh any upside potential in the medium term. We reiterate our HOLD and our USD22.7 target price.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution The S&P 500 uptrend remains intact, and the same can be said for the QQQ's. Despite a positive view of these two metrics, the aspect of of failed U.S. dollar breakdown coupled with the reversal. of the 10-year yields higher does give us pause. The S&P 500 breadth is showing signs of breadth divergence. 1.) The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal. A decisive close through last Friday's close of 104.89 could yet negate t...
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
SXT SENSIENT TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
MATX MATSON INC.
IFF INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
DAC DANAOS
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
ESEA EUROSEAS LTD
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 report and the guidance. We have raised our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 4%, but remain cautious on the medium-term outlook for dry bulk. Genco’s moderate cash-breakeven rate and conservative 8% market-adjusted leverage partly shield it from potentially deteriorating freight markets. Its financial flexibility could allow for through-the-cycle distributions and potential accretive transactions. However, on elevated asset values, we find Genco fairly valued (...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...
EME EMCOR GROUP
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
BKD BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC.
TRN TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC.
MTZ MASTEC INC.
MATX MATSON INC.
ENSG ENSIGN GROUP INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KBR KBR INC.
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
FSTR L.B. FOSTER CO.
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
DAC DANAOS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
NHC NHC COMMUNICATIONS
J INC.
JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD22.60) - Risk/reward deteriorat...
While we believe Genco remains a discounted entry into dry bulk exposure at a P/NAV of 0.77x, the recent share price rise and freight market strength have put more focus on the downside risks to our dry bulk sector outlook. Genco is set for a solid first half of the year on our estimates, but we find the risk/reward less attractive medium-term. Hence, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to USD22.6 (22.5).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...
SUM SUMMIT MATERIALS INC. CLASS A
MATX MATSON INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
MLM MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS INC.
AWC BROOK CROMPTON HOLDINGS
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
VNC VRANCART
DAC DANAOS
KNF KNIFE RIVER CORPORATION
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC COM
- Jørgen Lian
Yard response and dry bulk qualms
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
A brewing challenge for the yards
Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD22.50) - Consistent market stren...
We still believe Genco offers an attractive entry into dry bulk exposure, with its material NAV discount (P/NAV: 0.76x) offsetting what we see as elevated vessel values. The current dry bulk markets are staying firm against the risks of easing import demand growth in China on subdued economic indicators and elevated coal stockpiles. Strong forward freight agreements (FFAs) provide comfort to revenues and cash flow near-term, while the long-term investment case remains intact, in our view. We rei...
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD20.70) - Bulkers at a considerab...
We believe Genco offers investors an attractive entry into dry bulk exposure, with its material NAV discount offsetting what we see as elevated vessel values in light of modest prevailing TC rates. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD20.7 (19.0).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
VIRC VIRCO MANUFACTURING CORP.
STLD STEEL DYNAMICS INC.
LCNB LCNB CORP.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GLP GLOBAL PARTNERS LP
ESCA ESCALADE INC.
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORPORATION
BPMC BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP.
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MCBC MACATAWA BANK CORP.
FMAO FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC.
GLOB GLOBANT SA
TREE LENDINGTREE INC.
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
CRD.A CRAWFORD & CO. CL A
RYTM RHYTHM PHARMACEUTICALS
AMRX AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC. CLASS A
EBTC ENTERPRISE BANCORP INC.
VRCA VERRICA PHARMACEUTICALS
ALEC ALECTOR
BBIO BRIDGEBIO PHARMA
XRX XEROX HOLDINGS CORPORATION
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
CGNT COGNYTE SOFTWARE LTD.
AMR ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES INC
MYO MYOMO
FOUR SHIFT4 PAYMENTS
PRCT PROCEPT BIOROBOTICS CORP
PAY PAYMENTUS HLDGS INC
IMMX IMMIX BIOPHARMA INC
BHVN BIOHAVEN LTD
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORPORATION
ML MEILI AUTO HOLDINGS LTD.
IIND ISHARES MSCI INDIA UCITS ETF
- Jørgen Lian
Genco Shipping & Trading (Buy, TP: USD19.00) - ~70% upside to 1.0x P/N...
The market is offering discounted access to Genco’s relatively vintage fleet, with low cash breakeven from modest financial leverage, high operating leverage and substantial dividend power, reflected in the stock’s ~70% upside potential to 1.0x P/NAV. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD19.0 (18.7).
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