Humana (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - All eyes on PA court case
We have downgraded Humana to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK17 (50) on uncertainty related to the court case to retain its licence to operate Swedish personal assistance. While we believe Humana should be able to mount a successful defence, near-term client churn, administrative costs and billing challenges have led us to cut our 2023–2025e EPS by 54–41%. With the welfare-service universe out of favour, deep value is no longer enough in our view, and we now see less risky opportunities elsewhere in the welfare service sector.Humana AB is a Sweden-based care provider. It operates through four segments: Individual & Family, Personal Assistance, Elderly Care and Other Nordics. The Individual & Family segment provides psychosocial disorders and mental illness care. The Personal Assistance segment provides personal assistance to people with functional disabilities. The Elderly Care segment provides housing for the elderly. The Other Nordics segment covers the Company's developing market operations in the area. It operates in Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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