Nordic shorts: Embracer and Nibe highlighted

Shorts update

2025e: Strong cash flow & earnings growth

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Normalisation likely to take time

Q3 EPS was 62% below consensus and our forecast. Units sold were slightly more than we expected, but we believe discounts were used. JM stated it had issued redundancy notices to 150 workers, on rising costs on started projects, and lower EBIT margins than its long-term target. It also said it would take time for the market to normalise, despite falling interest rates. The inventory of unsold homes climbed to an all-time high, a trend that appears to have continued in Q4. We believe consensus reflects over-optimism on the timing of a recovery, and we reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resulting in lower ‘peak volumes’ and demand being spread over a longer period. The rig count is said to...