Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 50,000 shares at 112.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 97/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of b...

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Improving with sizeable buybacks

The Q3 sales growth was lacklustre YOY due to temporary headwinds, and we have cut our 2025e adj. EPS by 5%. But cash flow is improving (EUR60m net cash at end-Q3); the board announced a EUR12m buyback programme; and the outlook remains positive (customer pipeline, Brazil, efficiency focus and rising shareholder distribution). The negative overreaction on results day has created an attractive opportunity, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Unwarranted reaction

In need to navigate the challenges

With overall offshore oil service demand plateauing on flattish offshore E&P spending and unfolding value chain bottlenecks (FPSO and subsea), offshore drillers are seeing new demand being delayed. While this is supportive for cycle duration, and our base case assumes industry discipline, we see greater bifurcation in deepwater dayrates ahead. The premium jackup market is still in the early stages of absorbing ex-Aramco rigs, and with recent Pemex uncertainty, investors are remaining on the sidelines. As in recent years, we find consensus too high, and expect negative revisions. Still, we are ...

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK55.00) - Downside risk for aluminium prices

We expect EBITDA of NOK8.5bn, boosted by high alumina prices. We reiterate our SELL and NOK55 target price, as we believe aluminium prices of USD~2,700/t have been driven higher by speculation rather than fundamentals. Prices are inflated by high alumina prices, which should come down as more supply enters the market. Furthermore, we believe higher copper prices will not lead to higher aluminium prices for much longer, as the two metal prices do not share fundamentals. We have raised our 2025e EPS by 13% to account for higher alumina prices in Q1.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR5.60) - Market recovery should be here

Reflecting more conservative earnings margins, we have lowered our EBITDA for 2025–2026e by 20–10%. While this is negative, we still have confidence in the investment case. We continue to like Metsa Board’s earnings exposure to pulp, where we believe prices are about to rise which, combined with leverage to increased paper board volumes, should lead to higher earnings in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to EUR5.6 (5.8).