CMD: NAV should rise from here

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) our deep dive into Kinnevik’s ‘core growth companies’; 2) our lowered target price of SEK105 for Kinnevik, following the Q3 results; 3) our raised target price of SEK330 for Investor; 4) our lowered target price of SEK375 for Industrivärden; and 5) our reduced target price of SEK68 for Flerie.

Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK87.00) - No turning point in sight

Following a Q3 report with soft rental market KPIs and, in our view, no positive indications for the weakening Stockholm office rental market, we reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK87 (85). With all ongoing projects completed in 2025e (driving FFOps growth of 13% YOY), we see just 2% FFOps growth for 2026e without completions. Despite a 42% discount to last reported NAV, we consider a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 17x unattractive due to the muted FFOps growth outlook.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Due to favourable operations and unusually high gold production, underlying Q3 earnings were above our expectations. Mainly due to the Q3 earnings beat, we have increased our underlying EBITDA by c6%, while we maintain our 2025–2026e EBITDA which is considerably above consensus. We continue to like the favourable exposure to copper and gold and the earnings growth from self-help. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK480 (470).

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK100.00) - Recycling growth slowing

Tomra reported mixed Q3 results, with adj. EBITA of EUR44m in line with our estimate. Following a Q3 beat, we have raised our Collection 2025–2026e EBITA, but accounting for the softer-than-expected Recycling order intake in Q3, we have lowered our group 2025e EPS by 5%, while we increase our 2026e EPS by 4%. We have raised our target price to NOK100 (95). We reiterate our SELL as we see downside risk to market expectations for DRS implementation and Recycling order intake and find the valuation demanding.