Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone
We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding from 15% to 18%, driven by scale benefits.Kongsberg Gruppen supplies technology systems and solutions to customers engaged in the oil and gas industry, the merchant marine, and the defense and aerospace industries. Co.'s operating segments are Kongsberg Maritime, which delivers products and systems for commercial vessels and offshore installations, as well as for seabed surveys, surveillance, training simulators and fishing vessels and fisheries research; Kongsberg Defence Systems, a supplier of defence and space-related systems; Kongsberg Protech Systems, which provides weapon guidance system Protector RWS for military use; and Kongsberg Oil & Gas Technologies, a supplier of solutions to the international oil and gas industry.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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