Navigator Holdings Ltd Minor model adjustments
Following the Q4 results, we have updated our forecasts, slightly reduced our near-term rates, adjusted our costs and lowered our Terminal throughput estimates near-term due to the narrowed US–Far East product arbitrage. We are positive on the NGL export prospects, due to the extensive ~50% scheduled US export capacity expansion in the years ahead, supported by the EIA STEO, which forecasts average US export growth of 14% for ethane and 7% for LPG in 2025 and 2026. Hence, we forecast healthy rates and estimate an attractive average 15% FCFE yield on normalised debt amortisation for 2025 and 2026. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our USD23 target price.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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