NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK66.00) - Shifting dynamics of global tariffs
We forecast Q1 sales of SEK947m (8% organic decline YOY) and EBITA of SEK116m (5% below Infront consensus), translating to an EBITA margin of 12.3%. We expect a gradual recovery tilted towards the end of 2025 and into 2026 as the previously announced defence orders start to contribute. We have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITA by 6–5% due to FX and increased tariffs. However, we reiterate our BUY and have reduced our target price to SEK66.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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