reports
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK72.00) - Positive order intake trend
We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK72 (70) following the Q1 report, which showed improving order intake and net sales and EBITA in line with our estimates. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITA by 2–6% due to a quicker-than-expected order intake recovery, pushing up our near-term growth assumptions.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Continued slow market
We believe global PCB markets have been stable at low levels QOQ, but do not see Q1 as a major catalyst for the stock, as order intake is yet to show a major uptick. On the positive side, a new CFO has been announced and a small acquisition carried out in April, reducing management succession uncertainty and improving sentiment. We reiterate our HOLD, but have edged down our target price to SEK70 (73).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK73.00) - HOLD for market recovery
We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK73 target price, following weaker-than-consensus Q4 sales and EBITA. Order intake and prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but in light of lower Q4 sales, we have cut our 2024 growth forecasts, resulting in our 2024–2025e EBITA being reduced by 5%.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK73.00) - Slow market, strong balance sheet
We believe the slow PCB market in Q2–Q3 continued in Q4, resulting in still-low prices and relatively stable order intake. We like NCAB’s strong balance sheet and see potential green shoots for a market recovery in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK73 (65) on higher peer multiples.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - P&L miss but cash flow beat
NCAB’s Q3 sales and adjusted EBITA were below consensus, but cash conversion was strong and order intake appears to have levelled off QOQ. However, lower growth assumptions and adj. EBITA margin YOY have prompted us to cut our 2023–2024e EBITA by 3–9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK65 (72).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK72.00) - Expecting still-slow market in Q3
We expect a continuation of Q2’s weaker markets and lower prices in Q3, and no new M&A was announced. However, NCAB appeared confident at its CMD in September, when it reiterated its financial targets and seemed keen to continue with M&A. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK72 (80).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Caught off-guard, but still on track
Q2 net sales were 12% below consensus and EBITA 4% below. We believe lower PCB prices and a slower market explained the miss, and that a negative order trend QOQ paired with a cautious outlook drove a negative share-price reaction. However, margins were strong, and EBITA rose 5% YOY despite sales falling YOY. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK80 (90).
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