reports
- Marcus Develius
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK62.00) - Reflecting on challenges and opportunities
Q1 sales rose by 1% YOY (consensus -1%), but for comparable units declined by 5% in SEK and by 8% in USD, while order intake fell by 2% for comparable units in SEK. EBITA was SEK100m (11% below consensus), and EPS was SEK0.28 (20% below), hurt partly by increased freight costs and FX. We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITA by 3%, and lowered our target price to SEK62 (66), but reiterate our BUY.
- Marcus Develius
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK66.00) - Shifting dynamics of global tariffs
We forecast Q1 sales of SEK947m (8% organic decline YOY) and EBITA of SEK116m (5% below Infront consensus), translating to an EBITA margin of 12.3%. We expect a gradual recovery tilted towards the end of 2025 and into 2026 as the previously announced defence orders start to contribute. We have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITA by 6–5% due to FX and increased tariffs. However, we reiterate our BUY and have reduced our target price to SEK66.
- Marcus Develius
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Disappointing Q4, but future positive
Q4 sales fell by 10% YOY for comparable units in SEK (Infront consensus +3%) and by 11% in USD, while order intake fell by 3% for comparable units in USD (versus consensus of +4%). EBITA was SEK72m (37% below), and EPS was SEK0.22 (31% below), hurt by low sales and SEK15m of investment costs for NCAB’s new IT platform, which is included in depreciation. We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITA by 6–4% and lowered our target price to SEK70 (75), but reiterate our BUY.
- Marcus Develius
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Momentum in the making
We forecast Q4 sales growth of 3% YOY and expect further improvement into 2025 supported by 1) destocking tapering off, 2) A positive trend in order intake began to take shape in Q3, and 3) improving capacity utilisation in partner factories. We have reduced our 2025e EBITA by 5%, but raised 2026e by 2%. Following a change of analyst, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but cut our target price to SEK75 (80) to align with historical multiples.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - Momentum slowed in Q2
We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK80 (89) following the Q2 report, which was weaker than expected across the board, with adj. EBITA 15% below Infront consensus. However, NCAB recently announced a large acquisition, adding c6% to annual EBITA. We have cut our 2025e EBITA by 7% due to the earnings miss, offset somewhat by the recent M&A.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK89.00) - Set for gradual improvement in Q2e
We expect the slow global PCB markets to again show gradual improvements in Q2, indicating a possible continuation of the positive order intake trend from Q1. After quarter-end, NCAB announced two acquisitions, adding c2% to annual net sales and EBITA. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK89 (72) on improved peer multiples.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK72.00) - Positive order intake trend
We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK72 (70) following the Q1 report, which showed improving order intake and net sales and EBITA in line with our estimates. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITA by 2–6% due to a quicker-than-expected order intake recovery, pushing up our near-term growth assumptions.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Continued slow market
We believe global PCB markets have been stable at low levels QOQ, but do not see Q1 as a major catalyst for the stock, as order intake is yet to show a major uptick. On the positive side, a new CFO has been announced and a small acquisition carried out in April, reducing management succession uncertainty and improving sentiment. We reiterate our HOLD, but have edged down our target price to SEK70 (73).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK73.00) - HOLD for market recovery
We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK73 target price, following weaker-than-consensus Q4 sales and EBITA. Order intake and prices are showing signs of bottoming out, but in light of lower Q4 sales, we have cut our 2024 growth forecasts, resulting in our 2024–2025e EBITA being reduced by 5%.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK73.00) - Slow market, strong balance sheet
We believe the slow PCB market in Q2–Q3 continued in Q4, resulting in still-low prices and relatively stable order intake. We like NCAB’s strong balance sheet and see potential green shoots for a market recovery in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK73 (65) on higher peer multiples.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - P&L miss but cash flow beat
NCAB’s Q3 sales and adjusted EBITA were below consensus, but cash conversion was strong and order intake appears to have levelled off QOQ. However, lower growth assumptions and adj. EBITA margin YOY have prompted us to cut our 2023–2024e EBITA by 3–9%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK65 (72).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK72.00) - Expecting still-slow market in Q3
We expect a continuation of Q2’s weaker markets and lower prices in Q3, and no new M&A was announced. However, NCAB appeared confident at its CMD in September, when it reiterated its financial targets and seemed keen to continue with M&A. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK72 (80).
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Buy, TP: SEK80.00) - Caught off-guard, but still on track
Q2 net sales were 12% below consensus and EBITA 4% below. We believe lower PCB prices and a slower market explained the miss, and that a negative order trend QOQ paired with a cautious outlook drove a negative share-price reaction. However, margins were strong, and EBITA rose 5% YOY despite sales falling YOY. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK80 (90).
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