Nel (Sell, TP: NOK1.50) - Backlog appears lighter than air
Q4 results were decent, and cash burn below our expectation. However, we expect falling revenue in 2025 and losses to widen again. In addition, the backlog continues to slide and 40% is at “significant risk of delay or cancellation”. Excluding the “significant risk” portion, the backlog is 60% below its peak in 2023. Only 46% of consensus 2025 revenue is covered by backlog, while comparable figures have been 60–110% over the past five years. The prospect pipeline consists mainly of smaller projects, likely meaning that estimates will continue to be reduced. Nucera’s EV/sales implies a NOK1.5/share value for Nel. We reiterate our SELL and NOK1.5 target price.NEL ASA develops diagnostic tests for early detection of diseases. Co.'s patented method is based on identifying disease-specific gene expression signatures from sample materials, such as blood. Co.'s products in development phase include MCItect, for patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) aimed to detect Alzheimer disease within two years prior to onset of dementia, and ADtect, for the detection of mild to moderate Alzheimer disease, as well as one project in discovery phase, namely AMYtect, for brain amyloid detection.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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