Look past this quarter

Q3 sales dip likely temporary

Profitable growth ahead

While waiting for Pemex

With outstanding Pemex receivables equal to around five quarters of revenues, key for offshore drillers with Pemex exposure (Paratus and Borr Drilling) is to start to collect or monetise receivables during the next few months. Although Pemex is in a challenging financial situation with declining production, local reports and statements from the Mexican president suggest suppliers should start to get paid by March. For Paratus and Borr Drilling, payments would be a relief, while continued delays would add uncertainty and likely weigh on the share prices.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Set for another rich CBE year

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:30 CET on 5 February), as we are in line with consensus on adj. EBIT. However, given cocoa prices reaching new all-time highs in the past few weeks, and AAK’s position in CBEs and its strong balance sheet, we continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK370 (360), mainly due to increased estimates.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Much of the same into 2025e

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average and reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price. Our Q4e orders are a bit above consensus, but 2025e orders and clean EBITA are close.