Noble (Buy, TP: USD50.00) - Q4 guidance miss likely ignored
As investor focus is on the outyears rather than near-term earnings, we believe the small (12%) cut to the Q4 EBITDA guidance will likely be ignored. Q4 is the first quarter to include Maersk Drilling, so focus is mostly on balance sheet items. Net debt is said to be USD203m, marginally better than our forecast adjusted for Q4 share buybacks. Solid rig market fundamentals are also key, as confirmed by several new UDW jobs announced at the USD400k level. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD50 (49) on a small revision to our NAV.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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