Noble (Buy, TP: USD60.00) - Tier-2 rigs in need of backlog
We forecast Q2 EBITDA of USD230m, slightly above Bloomberg consensus of USD212m. Key to achieving its full-year guidance and providing reassurance on earnings ahead would be to secure new backlog on its tier-2 deepwater rigs (2x Globetrotters and 3x D-class semis). Even though we assume contributions from all these rigs in 2025e, our EBITDA estimate is 10% below consensus, leading us to see downside risk for 2025. On the positive side, we believe Noble’s efforts to drive consolidation and become the largest owner of 7G drillships help it attract investor attention. We reiterate our BUY and USD60 target price.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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