March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Nordic Paper Holding (Buy, TP: SEK65.00) - Solid Q1 and appealing outlook

Due to strong shipments and solid pricing of greaseproof paper, Q1 earnings were clearly above our forecasts. Looking ahead, we believe the company is well placed to mitigate higher wood costs with higher prices. No new information about a potential sale of the company was provided; however, given attractive assets and exposure, we still believe it could be sold at a premium and we consider the stock attractively valued even if a sale does not happen. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK65 (60).

Pulling another rabit out of the hat

Q1: EBITDA beat of 20%: Greaseproof surprises. Prices up 4% in Q2 vs. Q1. Mid-cycle fair price ~SEK 60-65/sh (~20% upside).

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (7.7) on our increased estimates including higher dividends.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Limited news on EU approval

The Q1 report was in line with expectations, with a small beat on the operating loss. The cash position at end-Q1 was nearly SEK1bn. There was limited news on the delayed EU approval (waiting on a SAG meeting). Eisai recently guided for Leqembi sales of JPY56.5bn (year to March 2025), implying royalties to BioArctic of cSEK360m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK350 target price.

Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

The weak Q1 results, with sales and adj. EBIT below our estimates, were largely due to a significant slowdown in Educational products. We have marginally revised our 2024–2026e on the strong management outlook for 2024, and reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price. We believe the weak share price reaction on the report presents an opportunity for long-term investors.