Thriving in the current environment

March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Soft start to 2025

The Q1 results were soft: 1) Profit from property management was 16% below consensus; 2) the EPRA vacancy rate rose to 13.8% (12.4% last quarter); and 3) market rents appeared to decline in some submarkets as renegotiations in Q1 dropped by 4.8% and Fabege wrote down asset values by 0.7% mainly on lowered market rent expectations. The equity story remains weak, with no turning point in sight and a soft FFOPS growth outlook, in our view. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK85 (87).

Tele2 (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Beneficiary of peak uncertainty

With the new main owner doubling down on costs, and a limited FX/tariff impact, Tele2 has significantly outperformed the OMX Benchmark index over the past two years. We believe a solid Q1 report is priced in, and have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but have raised our target price to SEK140 (135) on prospects of a tower deal.

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK38.50) - Cost reductions visible in Q1e

Telia’s Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 24 April. Due to a changed reporting structure, there is no meaningful consensus. However, we believe our forecast will be about in-line with an updated consensus. We see an acceleration of EBITDA growth to >5% following a personnel reduction. We reiterate our BUY and raise the target price to SEK38.50 (38).