Q3 EBITDA in-line

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Arctic Bioscience (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

While the 6-month HeROPA results did not include detailed data, it was clear that the trial did not meet the primary endpoint. This is a dramatic setback for the company, in our view, since it significantly questions the technology’s benefit as a pharmaceutical. As a result of the company’s financial situation (we estimate available liquidity to Q1 2025) and limited available information on the potential financing alternatives the company is considering for further funding, we have withdrawn our target price (NOK15) and recommendation (HOLD).

Lower prices and costs

We remain positive on the sector, as we still find the valuation supportive at 2025–2026e P/E’s of 13-11x, with SalMar and Mowi as our top picks. For our 2025–2026 sector forecasts, we have increased global supply by 30–40kt on 3–4% growth, noting high regulatory risk in some regions, but have reduced our spot prices by EUR0.2/kg to EUR7.7–7.9/kg. We have also reduced production costs by NOK1.5–3.5/kg on prevailing feed input prices, and cut our 2025e EPS by 7% but raised 2026e by 6%.