PW due to FX - '24 EBIT -12% vs. cons

PW - new guidance -12% vs. cons and -10% vs. ABG. Revision driven by FX, NOK -200m in one-off (weak NOK vs. USD)

Irregularity hitting Q4

Set for another subdued year

Volatile market interest rates, coupled with rental market weakness, indicate 2025 could be another year of subdued sector performance. The sector is trading at discounts to its historical averages on P/FFO (15.4x NTM) and NAV (26% discount), while the tight implied yield gap looks less appealing. Deleveraging efforts over the past three years have improved EBIT/NIBD metrics and reduced sector risk. We maintain our neutral stance, with one SELL recommendation. Our top sector picks are Balder, Nyfosa, Wihlborgs, Castellum, PPI and Logistea.

Nibe Industrier (Hold, TP: SEK45.00) - Mind the details

We estimate Q4 sales of SEK10,690m, organic growth of c-8.5% YOY, and adj. EBIT of SEK1,112m (c6% below our adjusted consensus). We expect management to mention expectations of an improving heat pump market in Europe throughout 2025. We have lowered our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by an average of c6%. We reiterate our HOLD and have reduced our target price to SEK45 (50).

SSAB (Hold, TP: SEK51.00) - Still caught in headwinds

We have cut our 2024–2025e earnings again, mainly due to a more cautious view on steel prices and volumes in general and US plate prices in particular. While we remain confident in the longer-term outlook for earnings and transformational investments, we are concerned about the recent negative steel price trend, in particular for US plate, will spill over to Q1 and possibly also Q2. We reiterate our HOLD, but after cutting our 2025e EBITDA by 14% and with an increased earnings risk, we have lowered our target price to SEK51 (54).