BlueNord (Buy, TP: NOK630.00) - Step by step to shareholder returns
Despite the shares being up ~18% YTD, we still see a solid risk/reward in BlueNord, helped by its investor-friendly shareholder return policy. Tyra was back in production on 22 March, which we believe will facilitate a capital structure reset, ultimately enabling BlueNord to reach its targeted distribution of 50–70% of operating cash flow for 2024–2026. Our estimates imply a ~50% payout of its (diluted) market cap over that time, significantly reducing the residual risk in the investment case. As we have lowered our gas price assumptions, we have cut our 2024–2026e EBITDA by 11–7%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK630 (660) on our lower estimates and NAV.Noreco Energy Company is a Norwegian exploration and production company engaged in the exploitation, development, and acquisition of oil and gas fields. Co.'s activities are located in Norway, Denmark and the U.K.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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