Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK550.00) - Alzheimer’s opportunity
Novo Nordisk is to initiate a phase III study with 14mg oral semaglutide in Alzheimer’s disease in H1 2021e. If successful, we see a potential launch in 2026e and DKK84bn unadjusted peak sales in 2032e assuming c75% penetration in our calculated target population in developed markets only (North America, Europe, Japan). We assign a c20% probability of success and have raised our target price by DKK25 to DKK550 (525). We reiterate our BUY.Novo-Nordisk is a global healthcare company engaged in the innovation of diabetes care. Co. also provides haemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Diabetes care business segment includes research, development, manufacturing and marketing of products within the areas of insulin, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products (OAD) and obesity. The Biopharmaceuticals business segment includes research, development, manufacturing and marketing of products within the areas of haemophilia, growth hormone therapy, hormone replacement therapy, inflammation therapy and other therapy areas.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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