Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertainty about the sales ramp up.

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK4.50) - Sales set to be in focus

Q2 Pepaxti sales missed our estimate (SEK8.2m versus SEK10m); however, strong cash flow included a one-off (although this will be reversed in Q3), and reported end-quarter cash was higher than we forecast (adj. cash was cSEK278m, lower than we forecast). The company said adj. cash should be sufficient to take it to positive cash flow (which it still expects late-2026). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK4.50 (5.50) on the back of our estimate changes.

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resulting in lower ‘peak volumes’ and demand being spread over a longer period. The rig count is said to...