Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Increasing shareholder distributions to >15% of the current market cap at US$70/bbl

• FY24 production, YE24 cash and debt had been reported previously. • FY25 production is expected to be 11-13 mbbl/d with only US$35 mm capex. We have trimmed our production forecast from 13.1 mbbl/d to 12.5 mbbl/d and our capex estimates from US$40 mm to US$35 mm. • The highlight of the announcement is the significant increase in shareholder distributions. Panoro has declared a NOK80 mm dividend for 4Q24, up from NOK50 mm in 3Q24. In 2025, Panoro plans to distribute NOK500 mm, including quarterly dividends of NOK80 mm for each of 1Q25, 2Q25 and 3Q25, bringing the annualised dividend to NOK320...

Energy Morning - 25 February 2025

DPS below guidance on lower oil prices

DOF Group (Buy, TP: NOK135.00) - Nearing refinancing

Q4 EBITDA was 8% below consensus, while cash flow was solid. Net debt has declined to a level where DOF should reach its target leverage ratio of 1.5–2.0x without further deleveraging needed (current NIBD to 2025e EBITDA is 1.8x), with focus shifting to shareholder returns after the expected refinancing is completed. The stock is trading at 2025–2026 EV/EBITDAs of 4.4–3.3x and an annualised DPS yield of 14% from Q2. We reiterate our BUY and NOK135 target price.

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - The ripple effects could be worse

After the Swedish Transport Administration on 19 February stated it was terminating its contract with AF Gruppen for the ongoing E4 Bypass Stockholm project – pointing to contract violations so serious that it intends to file police charges – we have eliminated the order from our backlog and cut our 2025e EPS by c5%. However, if found guilty of the violations in the legal process, we see even greater downside risk that in a worst-case scenario could include the company being excluded from public tenders. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.