Northern Lights

Recipharm (Hold, TP: SEK232.00) - Raised bid for the company

Recipharm reported a strong Q4 report on 28 January, with sales in line with expectations but EBITDA 14% above consensus. On the same day, EQT and the founders raised their bid for Recipharm to SEK232 per share (from SEK220), which was recommended by the independent part of the board of directors. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK232 (220).

Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - Epinkly off to a good start in 2024

Q1 sales beat our forecast and consensus due to higher product-related royalties and solid Epkinly sales, while the operating profit margin was softer than expected owing to higher opex. Genmab reiterated the 2024 guidance for sales of DKK18.7bn–20.5bn, opex of DKK12.4bn–13.4bn, and operating profit of DKK4.6bn–7.1bn. We expect a strong pipeline of news flow in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,630 target price.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.