Recipharm (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Recipharm, owing to its takeover by EQT. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

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Recipharm (Hold, TP: SEK232.00) - Raised bid for the company

Recipharm reported a strong Q4 report on 28 January, with sales in line with expectations but EBITDA 14% above consensus. On the same day, EQT and the founders raised their bid for Recipharm to SEK232 per share (from SEK220), which was recommended by the independent part of the board of directors. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK232 (220).

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Recipharm (Hold, TP: SEK220.00) - Deal evaluation difficult

In mid-December, EQT and the founders of Recipharm announced a public bid on Recipharm of SEK220/share. We believe there is a high likelihood of a successful take-over at, or slightly above, the announced price. The Moderna deal has made evaluation of the deal difficult, and while management stated earlier that such a deal would have a significant (10%+) impact on earnings, we do not know how sustainable this is. We have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), with a new target price at the offered ...

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Recipharm (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - Strong earnings in a weak quarter

Recipharm reported stronger earnings than we expected in Q3 (normally a seasonally weak quarter); while sales were softer, margins were better, mainly due to a better gross margin and lower personnel expenses. Q3 benefited from a SEK37m one-off, but even adjusting for this earnings were above expectations. The company expects to reach its long-term targets of a 12% EBITA margin and RoOC of at least 10% as soon as next year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK170 (165).

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Recipharm (Buy, TP: SEK165.00) - Seasonally weak Q3 expected

We expect the typical pattern to repeat itself, i.e. that Q3 will be the weakest quarter of the year. We forecast sales of cSEK2.7bn and EBITDA of cSEK373m, giving an EBITDA margin of c13.4% (results due at 07:45 CET on 5 November). Our Q3 forecasts are slightly below consensus overall. We have not yet adjusted our forecasts for the recently announced divestments in Portugal (as one of them has not taken place yet). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK165 (155).

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Recipharm (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Strong Q2 as pre-announced

Recipharm has released its Q2 results, which were generally in line with the pre-announcement on 13 July that earnings would be clearly stronger than previously guided. The overall Covid-19 impact in Q2 was positive for Recipharm, and it reported that the market is now stabilising, while customers’ clinical trial activity is returning to normal. We reinstate our BUY post-blackout, with a new target price of SEK155.

Recipharm AB: 1 director bought

A director at Recipharm AB bought 160,000 shares at 114.350SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

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Recipharm (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Strong start to the year

Recipharm reported stronger growth and earnings than we and consensus had expected for Q1, with a solid positive effect from the recently consolidated Consort Medical. Covid-19 is affecting the company, but it appears to have been able to mitigate most of the potential negative effects in Q1 at least. We have no recommendation or target price due to DNB Markets’ involvement in the proposed rights issue.

Recipharm (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Consort Medical now in estimates

Recipharm’s Q1 will be reported at 07:45 CET on 7 May. We have included Consort Medical in our forecast as the operations were consolidated from early February. We suspect the company has seen some negative impact from the Covid-19 pandemic. Demand for drugs should be relatively unaffected but operations might have suffered from personnel being absent and delivery disturbances of input goods. This could result in higher costs and thus put pressure on margins. We have no recommendation or targe...

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Recipharm (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Strong finish to the year

Recipharm reported strong earnings for Q4. The EBITDA margin was 18.5% (~50bp above our estimate) and sales were SEK1,981m (4% above our estimate). The acquisition of Consort Medical is proceeding and operations should be consolidated from February. We have no recommendation or target price due to DNB Markets’ involvement in the proposed acquisition of Consort Medical and potential subsequent rights issue.

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Recipharm (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Expectations ahead of Q4

Focus ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:45 CET on 20 February) is on the proposed acquisition of Consort Medical but, as the deadline for acceptance should have passed before the company reports, on results day the market is likely to focus on the outlook after the potential deal. We have no recommendation or target price due to DNB Markets’ involvement in the proposed acquisition of Consort Medical and the potential subsequent rights issue.

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