Sagax (Hold, TP: SEK260.00) - Past its growth trough
The Q3 results were solid and the 12-month rolling growth in adj. PFPMps was 4% (we estimated 2%). We view this as the trough and expect PFPMps growth to accelerate (to 13% by Q2 2025) and thus no longer a potential negative catalyst risk. Therefore, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK260 (240). We forecast a 2023–2026e FFOps CAGR of ~9% in our M&A scenario. Our new target price is based on a 2026e P/FFO of 19x in our M&A scenario.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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