Sagax (Sell, TP: SEK240.00) - PFPMps adj. growth to trough in Q3e
The reported Q2 was somewhat below expectations as the 12-month rolling growth in adj. PFPMps was 4% (our forecast: 5%). For Q3, we forecast 2% growth, while our 2023–2026e FFOPS CAGR is c8-9% in our M&A scenario (well below its 5-year average of 20%). We see limited scope for a boost beyond our M&A scenario by increasing leverage, given credit rating thresholds. We believe additional growth must come from potential equity raises. We reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to SEK240 (230), based on a 2026e (previously 2025e) P/FFO of 18x in our M&A scenario.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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