Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD54.00) - Looking to 2026 and beyond
We see long-term challenges for tier-2 rigs (2026 and beyond) and have cut our estimates again. While we believe Seadrill is well placed for two 7G deepwater extensions on ongoing Petrobras tenders (we estimate at dayrates cUSD450k), we are 9–25% below consensus on 2025–2026e EBITDA. We expect consensus to come down and believe Seadrill needs to de-risk tier-2 rigs, but still see an attractive investment case, based on asset values and 2026e earnings and beyond. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to USD54 (57).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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