Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD57.00) - Transition period extended
With open 2025 tier-2 deepwater capacity and most ongoing tenders looking at H2 2025 startup at the earliest, we see a growing risk of next year being another transition year for Seadrill, with its full earnings potential unfolding from 2026. We have made minor net changes to our estimates, which were already well below consensus. Our new 2025–2026 EBITDA forecasts are 25-20% below consensus, respectively. Upcoming consensus revisions could weigh on the shares, but we remain positive on the longevity of the upcycle. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to USD57 (57.1) due to FX.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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