Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - Consensus underestimates long-term margins
We expect regular seasonality in Q1, but believe this is not fully reflected by consensus (we are 10% below on EBITDA). We find consensus too conservative on margin expansion until 2026e. Excluding PLSVs, leases and JV contributions, we calculate consensus EBITDA implies only 1%-point EBITDA margin expansion in 2024–2026. We are 18% above consensus on 2026e EBITDA, and see upside potential to the guided USD250m/year shareholder return in 2026. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK225 (200).Subsea 7 is a provider of seabed-to-surface engineering, construction and services contractor to the offshore energy industry. Co. provides products and services required for subsea field development, including project management, design and engineering, procurement, fabrication, survey, installation, and commissioning of production facilities on the seabed and the tie-back of these facilities to fixed or floating platforms or to the shore. Co. also provides products and capabilities to deliver full Life of Field services to its clients. Through its i-Tech Division, Co. provides remotely operated vehicles and tooling services to support exploration, production and drilling activities.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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