Swedbank (Buy, TP: SEK265.00) - Good value despite NII decline
While Q1 probably marked the start of a prolonged NII normalisation (we expect 17% lower NII in 2025 than 2023), we still see fundamental valuation upside potential at a P/BV of 1.15x, given we expect Swedbank to keep its ROE well above 12% for a prolonged period. We have made limited changes to our 2024–2026e EPS, but have cut our target price to SEK265 (276) on lower dividend forecasts. Although we have reduced confidence in the timing and scope of capital distributions, we still expect an average annual dividend yield above 10% for 2024–2026.Swedbank provides financial services and products in its home markets of Sweden, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Co. has four segments: Swedish Banking, which is responsible for all its Swedish customers except corporates and financial institutions; Large Corporates and Institutions, which is responsible for large corporates, financial institutions and banks as well as for trading and capital market products; Baltic Banking, which operates in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania; and Group Functions and Other. At Dec 31 2013, Co. had 731 branches and 1,396 automated teller machines. Also as of such date, Co. had total assets of SEK1.82 trillion and deposits of SEK620.85 billion.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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