Q1'24: Better than feared

Bank Brunch/Moody's raises Swedbank outlook, Société Générale divestments continue

Moody's raises the outlook of Swedbank to positive on improving governance performance. Another divestment from Société Générale: Moroccan activities follow Equipment Finance

Q1 previews

While we believe the banks are past the NII peak, we forecast healthy and stable ROEs (c16% on average) in Q1, backed by rising commissions, good cost control and low loan losses. We still see attractive shareholder return potential in the sector, underpinned by robust earnings, attractive valuations (2025e average P/E 10% in 2024–2026e. We reiterate our positive sector view and BUYs on all four banks, with c30% average upside to our target prices. SHB remains our sector top pick.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Challenging market set to persist

The Q1 report was weak, as revenues were badly hit by a challenging market, which looks set to persist near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. At our new target price, the stock would be trading at a 2026e P/E of c5x, which we find to be warranted given the subdued market outlook and weak balance sheet.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast

XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.