Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK145, +14%) Q1 24: Good numbers, impressive FCF generation

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR and EBITDA c1% ahead, and FCF 49% ahead. FY24 guidance has not been lifted (but has been reiterated) despite the good Q1 numbers, with phasing of payments/items to impact FCF throughout the rest of the year, and this is perhaps a little disappointing, but momentum is clearly with Telenor at present, and if current trends persist, then guidance and estimates will move up.

EBITDA-capex 3% above, strong FCF

Solid momentum into the year for Telenor

Solid momentum into the year for Telenor Telenor showed good momentum going into the first quarter with top-line growth in both the Nordics and Asia. "The first quarter was yet another solid quarter for Telenor. We continue to develop security services to protect our customers against digital attacks, and we see that it is important for our customers," says Sigve Brekke, CEO of Telenor. Services revenues in the first quarter ended at NOK 15.8 billion, corresponding to an organic increase of 5.6 per cent compared to the same period last year. EBITDA ended at NOK 8.5 billion, correspondin...

Genmab (Buy, TP: DKK2630.00) - Epinkly off to a good start in 2024

Q1 sales beat our forecast and consensus due to higher product-related royalties and solid Epkinly sales, while the operating profit margin was softer than expected owing to higher opex. Genmab reiterated the 2024 guidance for sales of DKK18.7bn–20.5bn, opex of DKK12.4bn–13.4bn, and operating profit of DKK4.6bn–7.1bn. We expect a strong pipeline of news flow in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and DKK2,630 target price.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.