Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK125.00) - 2025 Nordics capex risk remains
While we are only just below consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBITDA, we are well below on FCF before M&A, and reiterate our SELL given our concerns Telenor will struggle to meet its 2025 capex-cutting ambitions for the Nordics amid headwinds, e.g. the ongoing fibre roll-out. Longer-term, we struggle to get excited about easing capex requirements, particularly in Norway, where competitive pressure is only likely to ratchet up. However, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (110).Telenor is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a telecommunication company. Co. provides mobile communication, fixed line communication, and broadcasting activities. Co.'s mobile communication business includes voice, data, Internet, content services, customer equipment and messaging. Fixed service comprise telephony, Internet and television (TV), leased lines as well as data services and managed services. Broadcast comprises Canal Digital DTH in the Nordics, satellite broadcasting, terrestrial radio and TV transmission in Norway and Belgium and encryption related services for TV distribution.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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