Another strong quarter on the cards

TF Bank AB: 1 director

A director at TF Bank AB bought 750 shares at 328.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of board mem...

TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Just getting started

Q3 EPS hit a new record, up 42% YOY, and Credit Cards’ lending continues to grow at 58% YOY. Asset quality was also better QOQ, and management expects further improvements. We still see significant upside potential in the stock. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–8%, and reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of SEK360 (330).

Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK137.00) - Still at a ~30% SOTP discount

Hexagon’s stock has seen a long-awaited recovery with Björn Rosengren set to become vice chairman in 2025, which we believe acts as a quality stamp and should appeal to a broader international investor base. We see Q4e as a clearing event, as 1) an earnings momentum story is building from 5% organic sales growth YOY and 15% adj. EPS growth YOY in 2025e; 2) the planned spin-off of ‘NewCo’ (~20% of EBIT) should remove its conglomerate discount and crystallise values; and 3) the valuation remains undemanding in trough territory on an absolute and relative basis, at a ~30% discount to our SOTP and...

Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK73.00) - Still-solid profitability

Seeing scope for still-solid NII and cost control, we expect a Q4 ROE of 12.9%, despite somewhat elevated loan losses. We forecast a 2024 DPS of NOK5.0, implying a ~59% payout ratio (versus its >50% policy) and a 7.6% dividend yield. Favouring the bank’s strong loan-loss absorption capacity and its business model based on in-depth sector knowledge and close customer relationships, we continue to find the valuation attractive at a dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~7.1x. Thus, we reiterate our BUY and NOK73 target price.

Seadrill (Buy, TP: USD54.00) - Awards seen as ‘good enough’

Two new long-term Brazil jobs at cUSD450k are on a par with our forecast, helping cycle duration and building visibility for the earnings story. Although we see consensus dropping for 2026 (we are 26% below on EBITDA), these datapoints seem ‘good enough’, given the weak sentiment for the sector. We reiterate our BUY and USD54 target price.