Tidewater (Buy, TP: USD55.00) - In line ahead of Q1
We forecast Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD125m, in line with consensus and the guidance. We are also in line on 2025e, but 10% below consensus for 2026e, as we expect continued softness in drilling activity to weigh on OSV demand. The stock is trading at a 2025e unleveraged FCF yield of 15% and EV/EBITDA of 4.2x, around all-time-low levels; we calculate that cUSD380m in adj. EBITDA would be required to support a multiple of 6x, more in line with historical levels (c30% below 2025e). We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to USD55 (62).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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