DnB Markets - Tokmanni Group Oyj (TOKMAN) Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Encouraging synergy and near-term trading comments

Report

DnB Markets

Miika Ihamaki

EUR 87.30 For Business Accounts Only

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Encouraging synergy and near-term trading comments

Despite the c3% clean EBIT miss on lower growth and higher costs in Q3, Tokmanni signalled confidence about reaching its target of over EUR15m in annual net synergies from the DollarStore acquisition, and that the Christmas season has begun “very well” for both businesses, suggesting a stronger Q4. We reiterate our BUY and EUR15 target price.

19/11/2023 1 EN

Underlying

Tokmanni Group Oyj

Tokmanni Group Oyj is a Finland-based company, which is primarily involved in the retail industry. The Company operates a retail chain with more than 150 stores in Finland. Tokmanni Group Oy's product assortment comprises approximately 25 000 active stock keeping units (SKU's) in six different product categories, such as home cleaning and personal care, groceries, clothing, tools and electrical equipment, leisure and home electronics, home and garden decoration. The home cleaning and personal care product category is divided into four subcategories: personal care, home care, household paper products, other products. The groceries product category is divided into six subcategories: beverages, snacks, cookies and candies, pet food and pet accessories, diet and nutrition, canned food, fresh food. The clothing product category includes mainly casual wear for daily use. The tools and electrical equipment product category includes various do-it-yourself goods, power, hand and other tools.

See profile

FI4000197934 Nasdaq Nordic Helsinki Finland

Provider

DnB Markets

DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.

See profile

Analysts

Miika Ihamaki

Other Reports on these Companies

DnB Markets

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR13.50) - Aisle of opportunity

We have upgraded Tokmanni to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR13.5 (13.0). We believe the recent market reaction overly penalised Tokmanni, with a PEG of c0.6x offering a good entry point in one of the largest variety discounters in the Nordics. Although overall economic uncertainty has risen, we believe Tokmanni’s low exposure to cyclical demand supports sustained growth and continue to see higher margins through operational scaling. For Q1e, we are close to consensus and expect 2025 guidance to be maintained.

Free Trial

April 8, 2025 April 8, 2025 1 EN

DnB Markets

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR13.00) - Fewer dollars on the bottom line

While LFL sales and traffic improved sequentially in Q4, we believe this was driven by extensive campaigns and uptake in consumables, with lower gross margins questioning the competitiveness of Tokmanni’s accretive margin range, particularly in Sweden. In our view, the broad profit guidance indicates a cautious outlook and low visibility. We have reduced our target price to EUR13 (14), having cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average, mostly on lower DollarStore gross margin projections, and reiterate our HOLD.

Free Trial

March 7, 2025 March 7, 2025 1 EN

DnB Markets

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR14.00) - Neutral view intact

We expect a slightly positive Q4 (our sales estimate is slightly below consensus, but our clean EBIT is c3.5% above), as the company’s performance should reflect modestly better trading conditions and margin expansion. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR14 (12.5), following our more de-risked view of its 2025–2026e profit outlook, supported by the recently announced SPAR International licence agreement.

Free Trial

February 28, 2025 February 28, 2025 1 EN

Flerie (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - Entering tougher times with care

Entering tougher times with care Q1 saw a 6% decline QOQ in Flerie’s NAV, as FX movements and valuation overshadowed progress across its portfolio (e.g. positive results for Lipum and AnaCardio). We have lowered our target price to SEK57 (68) to reflect a more challenging environment for early-stage life science assets, but reiterate our BUY as we continue to like the diversified, conservatively valued portfolio and the share redemption scheme at NAV (set for end-Q2). Flerie is set to take listed holding Toleranzia private subject to AGM approval, which should improve funding conditions agains...

Free Trial

April 16, 2025 April 16, 2025 1 EN

Linus Sigurdson

Linus Sigurdson

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Executing on exits and buybacks

Q1 saw 1% NAV growth QOQ in USD terms, as operational progress and FX effects (mostly relating to the BRL) offset multiples contraction. We are encouraged by the recent partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, 4x CoC and valuation in line with NAV, and see further near-term upside potential in this name. We have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (2.9), mainly on the USD headwind versus the SEK, but reiterate our BUY, as we still see scope for a re-rating from continued exits, deleveraging and the recently announced buyback programme.

Free Trial

April 16, 2025 April 16, 2025 1 EN

Nicolas McBeath

Nicolas McBeath

Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Resilient returns at a discount

Nordea’s Q1 was a robust quarter, with a resilient >15% ROE on a strong capital position (200bp management buffer) underpinning Nordea’s widening ROE lead versus its peers. We have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 3–4% and our target price to SEK155 (148). Nordea is trading at a c15% P/E discount to its Swedish large bank peers, which we find unjustified given its superior ROE versus the peer group. We reiterate our BUY.

Free Trial

April 16, 2025 April 16, 2025 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR15.00) - Encouraging synergy and near-term trading comments

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR13.50) - Aisle of opportunity

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR13.00) - Fewer dollars on the bottom line

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR14.00) - Neutral view intact

Flerie (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - Entering tougher times with care

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Executing on exits and buybacks

Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Resilient returns at a discount

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe