Edison Investment Research - TransContainer (TRCN) - Structural and cyclical locomotion

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Edison Investment Research

- Structural and cyclical locomotion

Our increased three-year EBITDA CAGR of 20% for TransContainer is driven by rising rates of ‘containerisation’ in Russian rail freight, a gathering pace of economic rebound in Russia and strong operating efficiency delivered by company management. Our increased forecasts are the main driver behind an increase in fair value to RUB4,900, which implies 23% upside to current levels. The stock offers investors unique exposure to attractive structural and cyclical growth factors in Russia as well as a management team that has shown its ability to manage the business and cash flows during difficult macroeconomic conditions.

20/09/2017 13 EN

Underlying

TransContainer

PJSC Transcontainer is engaged in the arrangement of rail-based container shipping and other logistics services. Rail-based transportation services primarily include arranging the transportation of its own and third-party containers by rail. Integrated freight forwarding and logistics services are service packages including rail container transportation, terminal handling, truck deliveries, freight forwarding and logistic services. As of Dec. 31, 2012, Co. owns and operates 46 container terminals along the Russian railway network, operated 17 branches in Russia, had a truck fleet of 860 units, fleet of 25,086 container flatcars and 19,425 medium-duty (3-ton and 5-ton) containers.

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RU000A0JPRX9 Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS Russia

Provider

Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

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Edison Investment Research

TransContainer - Mandatory tender offer to be launched

Following the sale of a majority stake in TransContainer to Delo Group as a result of the planned auction (at c RUB8,680/share), there is a legal requirement for Delo Group to launch a tender offer to minority shareholders. TransContainerâ€™s Q3 results showed strong earnings growth, albeit at lower rates than previous quarters. We have slightly reduced our DCF-based valuation to RUB9,100/share.

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TransContainer - Another beat, with structural and cyclical drivers

Both cyclical and structural factors drove strong revenue growth in H119 (adjusted revenues up 32% y-o-y, above our expectations) which, combined with efficiency gains and economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, as we expect a stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which drives a 33% increase in our valuation to RUB9,460/share.

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- Structural and cyclical locomotion

TransContainer - Mandatory tender offer to be launched

TransContainer - Another beat, with structural and cyclical drivers

TransContainer - Q1 growth trend exceeds our expectations again

Topps Tiles - Accelerating growth through Q125

Baillie Gifford US Growth Trust - A unique high-growth strategy meriting support

Greggs - More challenging environment in H224

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