reports
TransContainer - Mandatory tender offer to be launched
Following the sale of a majority stake in TransContainer to Delo Group as a result of the planned auction (at c RUB8,680/share), there is a legal requirement for Delo Group to launch a tender offer to minority shareholders. TransContainer’s Q3 results showed strong earnings growth, albeit at lower rates than previous quarters. We have slightly reduced our DCF-based valuation to RUB9,100/share.
TransContainer - Another beat, with structural and cyclical drivers
Both cyclical and structural factors drove strong revenue growth in H119 (adjusted revenues up 32% y-o-y, above our expectations) which, combined with efficiency gains and economies of scale, led to EBITDA growth of 67% y-o-y and net income almost doubling. We forecast growth to continue, albeit at a more moderate pace, as we expect a stabilisation in rail container transportation prices. We have significantly increased our forecasts, which drives a 33% increase in our valuation to RUB9,460/shar...
TransContainer - Q1 growth trend exceeds our expectations again
Following TransContainer’s strong Q1 results, with adjusted revenues growing by more than 30% y-o-y, we have further increased our forecasts for FY19–20 (revenue up 6–9%). The growth in Q1 was boosted by increased sales to customers located outside Russia. We have increased our valuation to RUB7,100/share on the back of higher forecasts.
TransContainer - FY18 results beat our estimates, forecasts raised
We have raised our FY19 and FY20 revenue forecasts by 3% and net income c 20%, following strong FY18 results that were above our expectations. We expect TransContainer to continue achieving sustained volume growth, benefiting from the structural trend towards growing containerisation and economic growth in Russia. We have increased our DCF-based valuation by 13% to RUB6,100/share.
TransContainer - Growth accelerating in Q3, forecasts raised
TransContainer delivered a significant step-up in revenue and EBITDA growth in Q3, supported by industry growth, higher efficiencies and a more favourable business mix. We have increased our FY18 forecasts to reflect the strong Q3 results (revenue, EBITDA and net income forecasts rise by 4%, 15% and 26% respectively) and made more modest increases to our FY19 and FY20 forecasts. Our DCF valuation increases by 4% to RUB5,400/share, implying 20% potential upside to the current share price.
Edison Investment Research Limited: Edison issues outlook on TransCont...
Edison Investment Research Limited Edison Investment Research Limited: Edison issues outlook on TransContainer (TRCN) 25-Sep-2018 / 13:10 GMT/BST London, UK, 25 September 2018 Edison issues outlook on TransContainer (TRCN) TransContainer (TC) has continued to show strong results, with Q218 EBITDA, reported on 29 August, increasing by 13% y-o-y. The company is benefiting from structural growth, especially switching rail cargo to containers, and Russia's economic recovery. Recent monthly market data bode well for TC's Q318 results. It has also continued to pursue initiatives that are benefi...
TransContainer - Revenue and cost initiatives paying off
TransContainer (TC) has continued to show strong results, with Q218 EBITDA, reported on 29 August, increasing by 13% y-o-y. The company is benefiting from structural growth, especially switching rail cargo to containers, and Russia’s economic recovery. Recent monthly market data bode well for TC’s Q318 results. It has also continued to pursue initiatives that are benefiting the EBITDA margin by increasing the proportion of Integrated Services, profit-making runs and block trains. Our DCF mod...
TransContainer - Strong Q2 results, led by a rise in productivity
On 29 August, TransContainer announced Q218 IFRS results. The results showed further growth, with a 6% increase in revenue and 16% growth in EBITDA. We think the main point of interest is how TransContainer has continued to increase productivity by improving the ratio of ‘profit-making runs’ by its containers. The further acceleration in market container volumes in July bodes well for Q3. We have maintained our 2018 EPS but increased our DCF valuation by 2%.
- Aleksey Ryabushko
- Julia Gordeyeva
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- Structural and cyclical locomotion
Our increased three-year EBITDA CAGR of 20% for TransContainer is driven by rising rates of ‘containerisation’ in Russian rail freight, a gathering pace of economic rebound in Russia and strong operating efficiency delivered by company management. Our increased forecasts are the main driver behind an increase in fair value to RUB4,900, which implies 23% upside to current levels. The stock offers investors unique exposure to attractive structural and cyclical growth factors in Russia as well as a...
Russian rail volumes continue to grow
TransContainer’s (TRC) FY16 results announcement on 29 March was in line with Edison and market expectations. Russian rail freight volumes are growing by double-digit amounts and TRC continues to show its ability to exploit this growth trend. Our three-year EBITDA (company definition) CAGR of 12.7% is driven by continued economic recovery in Russia, higher rates of ‘containerisation’ and enhanced profitability as an increasing volume of freight is handled by TRC’s more profitable Integrated Frei...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
Runaway market growth
TransContainer’s (TRC) nine-month and Q3 results announcement on 28 November was in line with Edison and market expectations. We leave our forecasts unchanged, but acknowledge that if the Russian rail container market continues to grow at the rate witnessed in recent months, our estimates (five-year EBITDA CAGR 11.3%) will look conservative. We await full year results, which we expect in late March, for a management update on rail container market growth.
Q2 volume recovery boosts earnings story
TransContainer’s (TRC) H116 results showed the company is benefiting from improving market conditions bolstered by active cost management. Russian rail-freight volumes increased by 6.1% in H116; Q2 volumes in particular accelerated significantly. This rebound, in contrast to a sluggish overall economic performance in Russia, was driven by increasing levels of ‘containerisation’ in the country and gives us confidence in our FY16 earnings forecasts for TRC. The 360bp improvement in EBITDA margins ...
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