Energy - What Lies Ahead for IPP’s, OMC’s and Refineries
- We have forecasted power demand to grow at 5%pa, assumed a structural 1,500MW minimum deficit level and forecasted plant utilization levels in order of fuel cost. This results in curtailment of the power deficit by FY19-20.
- We expect LPL’s utilization levels to fall from 53.3% in 2017 to 27.9% in 2018 and 17.5% in 2019. This results in a 50-60% increase in FY18 and FY19 earnings and a 50% increase in dividends.
- We expect utilization levels for NCPL/NPL to fall from 76.8%/72.5% in FY17 to 62.7%/62.8% in FY18 and 37.2%/37.2% in FY19. This results in roughly 5.0% and 15.0% reduction in earnings in FY18 and FY19 for both companies. Dividends will be unaffected in FY18 and drop by 12-25% in FY19.
- With FO accounting for 48% of fuel offtakes for PSO, it will be the most effected (amongst OMC’s) by the decline in FO volumes. Our sensitivities suggest that every 10% decline in FO offtakes shaves off EPS by 2.5-4.0%.
Attock Petroleum Limited is engaged in the procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum and related products. The Company offers a range of lubricants blended with base oils and additives at its Automatic Batch Blending facility. Its products include diesel engine grades, such as GOLD TURBO PLUS, GOLD TURBO, GOLD XTRA and GOLD-50; gasoline engine grades, such as HIDRIVE SUPREME, HIDRIVE SUPER and ATTOCK T-2; industrial grades, such as ATTOCK Hydraulic Oil AW Series, ATTOCK Gear Oil EX Series and ATTOCK TURBINE Oil, and gear oils, which include various specifications, such as EP 140, EP 90, 85W/90 and 85W/140. It has a multi-fuel retail network of approximately 540 retail outlets. The Company's retail outlets also offer compressed natural gas, as well as non-fuel retailing options, such as tuck shops, car services and lubricants. It supplies various types of fuels to various businesses, including manufacturing industry, armed forces, agricultural customers and power producers.
Hascol Petroleum Limited is a Pakistan-based company, which is engaged in procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum and related products. The Company is involved in the sale of petroleum products, such as fuel oil, high speed diesel, gasoline, Jet A-1, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and lubricants. The Company offers products, such as Tiger Super, Rocket Diesel and Furnace Oil. The Company offers Fuchs Lubricants products, which include corrosion preventives, quenching oils, industrial lubricants, open gear lubricants, greases, automotive oil and metal working fluids. The Company also markets LPG as an automotive fuel through its retail network. The Company is engaged in owning, leasing and renting oil storage facilities, as well as importing petroleum products. The Company has storage facilities at Machike, Shikarpur and Daulatpur. The Company sells its product to dealers, government agencies and autonomous bodies, independent power project and other corporate customers.
Hub Power Company is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a power producer in Pakistan that focuses on developing, owning, operating and maintaining power stations. Co. supplies electricity to Water and Power Development Authority and National Transmission and Despatch Company under long term Power Purchase Agreements for its Hub and Narowal plants respectively.
Kot Addu Power Co Ltd. Kot Addu Power Company Limited is a Pakistan-based power generation company. The Company's principal activities are to own, operate and maintain a multi-fuel fired power station with approximately 15 generating units with a nameplate capacity of 1,600 megawatts (MW) in Kot Addu, District Muzaffargarh, Punjab, Pakistan. The Company also sells the electricity produced therefrom to a single customer, the Pakistan water and power development authority. The power plant is a multi-fuel gas-turbine power plant using three fuels to generate electricity: gas, light sulfur furnace oil and high speed diesel. The plant's combined cycle technology enables it to use the waste heat from the gas turbine exhaust to produce steam in the heat recovery steam generator, which in turn is used to run the steam turbines.
Nishat Chunian Power Ltd. Nishat Chunian Power Limited is a Pakistan-based power generation company. The principal activity of the Company includes building, owning, operating and maintaining a fuel fired power station having gross capacity of 200 megawatts and net capacity of 195.722 megawatts at Jamber Kalan, Tehsil Pattoki, District Kasur, Punjab, Pakistan. The Company's project is a 200 megawatts residual furnace oil (RFO) fired reciprocating engine technology combined cycle power plant. The primary components of the plant has approximately 11 engine sets of type 18V46 manufactured by WARTSILA Finland, and one heat recovery steam turbine and alternator sets manufactured by Converteam and ABB. The primary fuel of the plant is RFO. The Company is a subsidiary of Nishat (Chunian) Limited.
Nishat Power Limited is a Pakistan-based company, which as an independent power producer (IPP). The principal activity of the Company includes building, owning, operating and maintaining a fuel fired power plant based on Reciprocating Engine Technology having gross capacity of 200 megawatts in Jamber Kalan, Tehsil Pattoki, District Kasur, Punjab, Pakistan. The Company is a subsidiary of Nishat Mills Limited. The Company, through its subsidiary, Lalpir Solar Power (Private) Limited, is engaged in building, owning, operating, and maintaining or investing in a solar power project having gross capacity up to 20 megawatt peak (MWp) with net estimated generation capacity of approximately 19 MWp. Its project site is located at Mehmood Kot, Muzaffar Garh district.
Pakistan State Oil is a petroleum group based in Pakistan. Co.'s principal activities are the procurement, storage and marketing of petroleum and related products. Co. also blends and markets various kinds of lubricating oils.
Elixir Securities Pakistan is a Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchange & Pakistan Mercantile Exchange and is one of the leading securities brokerage & investment banking firms in Pakistan, established since 1994. Our principal business activities include all aspects of Pakistan’s Capital Markets covering Securities Brokerage (Equities, Fixed Income and Commodities), Corporate Finance & Capital Markets Advisory (M&A, ECM, DCM) and Investment Research (Economics & Securities). We are one of the most active & aggressive Broker-Dealers in Pakistan executing trades for most of the Top 20 Global Brokers with unmatched corporate access credentials and have successfully advised and closed on some landmark ECM transactions in the history of Pakistan including the largest deal in frontier Asia (USD 1.02 billion). Our Clients include foreign and domestic financial institutions (Banks, Asset Managers, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds) corporates, HNWI’s and retail investors. This is supported by a very strong and independent research capability, which is quoted regularly in both local and international media.
Elixir Securities Pakistan is the proud recipient of many awards & recognitions including AsiaMoney’s Brokers Poll 2017, FinanceAsia’s Pakistan Best Investment Bank and Best Broker 2017, The Asset’s Best Brokerage House in Pakistan 2016, Asiamoney’s “Best Domestic Equity House 2015 in Pakistan”, The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2015 - Pakistan “Deal of the Year” and “Deal of the Year-Highly Commended”, CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2015 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank), CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2014 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank)”, “Best Trader” 2nd Runner-up (3rd Rank), The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2014’s “Best Deal in Pakistan” and Capital Finance International’s nomination for “Best Equity Research in Pakistan 2010”.
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