Pakistan IPPs Sector - PKR/USD Depreciation & Higher Penal Income to Drive Earnings
- HUBC, KAPCO and NPL are set to announce their 1QFY19 results next week where we expect them to post EPS of PKR2.4, PKR2.7 and PKR2.5, respectively. Earnings are expected to grow on YoY basis on the back of 18%YoY average PKR/USD depreciation and higher penal income.
- Incorporating a higher risk free rate of 11% (vs. 10% earlier) and a higher expected average PKR/USD of PKR135 in FY19 take our Jun-19 PT’s for HUBC, KAPCO and NPL to PKR140, PKR55 and PKR33, offering 68%, 15% and 37% capital upsides, respectively. The PKR/USD depreciation theme bodes well for the power sector but at the same time the ongoing liquidity crunch on the back of piling circular debt continues to be a concern.
- Despite the ongoing concerns on overdue receivables, we maintain our liking for HUBC due to its diversified portfolio, speedy progress on its upcoming projects and attractive dividend yield. At last price, the stock offers a 9.0% dividend yield taking its total expected return to 77%.
Hub Power Company is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a power producer in Pakistan that focuses on developing, owning, operating and maintaining power stations. Co. supplies electricity to Water and Power Development Authority and National Transmission and Despatch Company under long term Power Purchase Agreements for its Hub and Narowal plants respectively.
Kot Addu Power Co Ltd. Kot Addu Power Company Limited is a Pakistan-based power generation company. The Company's principal activities are to own, operate and maintain a multi-fuel fired power station with approximately 15 generating units with a nameplate capacity of 1,600 megawatts (MW) in Kot Addu, District Muzaffargarh, Punjab, Pakistan. The Company also sells the electricity produced therefrom to a single customer, the Pakistan water and power development authority. The power plant is a multi-fuel gas-turbine power plant using three fuels to generate electricity: gas, light sulfur furnace oil and high speed diesel. The plant's combined cycle technology enables it to use the waste heat from the gas turbine exhaust to produce steam in the heat recovery steam generator, which in turn is used to run the steam turbines.
Nishat Power Limited is a Pakistan-based company, which as an independent power producer (IPP). The principal activity of the Company includes building, owning, operating and maintaining a fuel fired power plant based on Reciprocating Engine Technology having gross capacity of 200 megawatts in Jamber Kalan, Tehsil Pattoki, District Kasur, Punjab, Pakistan. The Company is a subsidiary of Nishat Mills Limited. The Company, through its subsidiary, Lalpir Solar Power (Private) Limited, is engaged in building, owning, operating, and maintaining or investing in a solar power project having gross capacity up to 20 megawatt peak (MWp) with net estimated generation capacity of approximately 19 MWp. Its project site is located at Mehmood Kot, Muzaffar Garh district.
Elixir Securities Pakistan is a Corporate Member of the Pakistan Stock Exchange & Pakistan Mercantile Exchange and is one of the leading securities brokerage & investment banking firms in Pakistan, established since 1994. Our principal business activities include all aspects of Pakistan’s Capital Markets covering Securities Brokerage (Equities, Fixed Income and Commodities), Corporate Finance & Capital Markets Advisory (M&A, ECM, DCM) and Investment Research (Economics & Securities). We are one of the most active & aggressive Broker-Dealers in Pakistan executing trades for most of the Top 20 Global Brokers with unmatched corporate access credentials and have successfully advised and closed on some landmark ECM transactions in the history of Pakistan including the largest deal in frontier Asia (USD 1.02 billion). Our Clients include foreign and domestic financial institutions (Banks, Asset Managers, Insurance Companies, Pension Funds) corporates, HNWI’s and retail investors. This is supported by a very strong and independent research capability, which is quoted regularly in both local and international media.
Elixir Securities Pakistan is the proud recipient of many awards & recognitions including AsiaMoney’s Brokers Poll 2017, FinanceAsia’s Pakistan Best Investment Bank and Best Broker 2017, The Asset’s Best Brokerage House in Pakistan 2016, Asiamoney’s “Best Domestic Equity House 2015 in Pakistan”, The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2015 - Pakistan “Deal of the Year” and “Deal of the Year-Highly Commended”, CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2015 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank), CFA Society of Pakistan Awards for Year 2014 “Best Research Analyst (1st Rank)”, “Best Trader” 2nd Runner-up (3rd Rank), The Asset Triple A Country Awards 2014’s “Best Deal in Pakistan” and Capital Finance International’s nomination for “Best Equity Research in Pakistan 2010”.
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