Emerginomics

WHY EMERGINOMICS?

  • Original take on geopolitical, economic and oil market developments
  • Thematic research on hot topics
  • Face-to-face meetings and presentations upon request
  • Independent views not influenced by the need to comply with a “house view” or priorities imposed from above.

MEET THE FOUNDER. Tatiana Orlova holds a MSc in Economics from the LSE and has worked as an Emerging Market economist and strategist since graduation in 2001. She has been employed in EM research teams in four investment banks covering a diverse range of CEEMEA economies, with a particular specialism in the post-Soviet economies.

Tatiana is a widely known expert on the post-Soviet economies who has given multiple interviews to major world financial media (such as FT, Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC etc) and spoken at conferences attended by hundreds of clients. Tatiana’s unique background and experience, as well as her deep knowledge of the region’s economics, history and geopolitical realities, allows her to make accurate forecasts and predictions across the range of Fixed Income instruments. She has covered the region’s hydrocarbon producers during the oil crises of 2008-2009 and 2014-2016, and issued a range of successful calls. Most notably, in September 2014 she predicted that Russia was about to lose its investment grade sovereign rating, which was a highly non-consensus view. Similarly, she correctly called imminent downgrades of sovereign ratings of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan during the following winter. She also has a track record of successful FX and interest rate recommendations.

GET ACCESS TO EXPERTISE IN AN UNDERSUPPLIED MARKET

MIFID II forces big banks to switch to paid subscriptions by Mifid II as of 3 January 2018. Clients who subscribe to standard research packages covering emerging economies in the CEEMEA region may find themselves paying for run-of-the-mill research of variable quality, not always addressing the hottest topics affecting asset prices in a timely manner. Banks have already slimmed down their research teams substantially, and this process will likely continue after the new rules have kicked in. The cuts have already translated in a lack of resources and expertise to provide in-depth macroeconomic coverage, especially of smaller economies in the region.

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia: Time to pause monetary easing

The recent announcement of a new round of US sanctions and escalation in geopolitical tensions rocked Russian markets. Since the previous CBR policy meeting in late March, the rouble has weakened by 7% vs. USD, prices of Russian bonds have fallen and the stock market has lost more than 7% of its value. The CBR is likely to switch into a cautious mode until it has more clarity on the inflationary impact of the recent developments. We expect it to halt its easing cycle in April, and remain on hold...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia Instant Insight: Central bank is due to hold regular policy mee...

Since the previous policy meeting held on 9 February, a new bout of geopolitical tensions has replaced the global market turmoil. As before, we expect the CBR to remain on a steady course and continue easing its policy at the next meeting due on 23 March. We expect a 25bp cut next Friday; meanwhile, the outlook for 2Q now appears cloudier. We think that fiscal policy after the Presidential Election scheduled for 18 March will likely be the main determinant of the path of CBR’s monetary policy in...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Sovereign Update / Russia

Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 18 March, the government has announced that it is planning both a Eurobond swap and new Eurobond issuance this month. The recent upgrade of Russia’s sovereign external debt rating by one notch to BBB- by S&P creates a favourable backdrop for these plans. Still, we are not convinced that the tightness of Eurobond spreads is going to persist in the coming months. The recovering economy and relatively stable oil prices provide a positive environment...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Sovereign Update / Belarus

Belarus is preparing to tap external debt markets in the coming weeks. Based on the recent success of Eurobond placement by Egypt, its rating peer, we believe it should be able to attract funding on favourable terms. Investors who remain hungry for high-yielding debt despite the recent global market jitters should appreciate evidence of recovery in production and exports, low inflation and prudent fiscal policy. In the near term, risks to macroeconomic stability appear moderate; however, the eco...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia Instant Insight: CBR cuts its policy rate by 25bps, sounds dovi...

Today the CBR cut its policy rate by 25bps to 7.50%, in line with the market forecast and our expectations. The meeting minutes transmit a dovish signal, as the CBR has explicitly stated its intention to continue easing as it sees a much lower probability of inflation exceeding its target in a near term. However, it has also communicated that its easing cycle is likely to end this year. We continue to see a 25bp cut in March. However, we also see an increasing risk of another drop in the oil pri...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia: Time to pause monetary easing

The recent announcement of a new round of US sanctions and escalation in geopolitical tensions rocked Russian markets. Since the previous CBR policy meeting in late March, the rouble has weakened by 7% vs. USD, prices of Russian bonds have fallen and the stock market has lost more than 7% of its value. The CBR is likely to switch into a cautious mode until it has more clarity on the inflationary impact of the recent developments. We expect it to halt its easing cycle in April, and remain on hold...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia Instant Insight: Central bank is due to hold regular policy mee...

Since the previous policy meeting held on 9 February, a new bout of geopolitical tensions has replaced the global market turmoil. As before, we expect the CBR to remain on a steady course and continue easing its policy at the next meeting due on 23 March. We expect a 25bp cut next Friday; meanwhile, the outlook for 2Q now appears cloudier. We think that fiscal policy after the Presidential Election scheduled for 18 March will likely be the main determinant of the path of CBR’s monetary policy in...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Sovereign Update / Russia

Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for 18 March, the government has announced that it is planning both a Eurobond swap and new Eurobond issuance this month. The recent upgrade of Russia’s sovereign external debt rating by one notch to BBB- by S&P creates a favourable backdrop for these plans. Still, we are not convinced that the tightness of Eurobond spreads is going to persist in the coming months. The recovering economy and relatively stable oil prices provide a positive environment...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Sovereign Update / Belarus

Belarus is preparing to tap external debt markets in the coming weeks. Based on the recent success of Eurobond placement by Egypt, its rating peer, we believe it should be able to attract funding on favourable terms. Investors who remain hungry for high-yielding debt despite the recent global market jitters should appreciate evidence of recovery in production and exports, low inflation and prudent fiscal policy. In the near term, risks to macroeconomic stability appear moderate; however, the eco...

Tatiana Orlova
  • Tatiana Orlova

Russia Instant Insight: CBR cuts its policy rate by 25bps, sounds dovi...

Today the CBR cut its policy rate by 25bps to 7.50%, in line with the market forecast and our expectations. The meeting minutes transmit a dovish signal, as the CBR has explicitly stated its intention to continue easing as it sees a much lower probability of inflation exceeding its target in a near term. However, it has also communicated that its easing cycle is likely to end this year. We continue to see a 25bp cut in March. However, we also see an increasing risk of another drop in the oil pri...

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