New Model Anti-infectives
Destiny Pharma is not just developing novel anti-infective drugs - its lead product XF-73 is in the US and European Phase 2b study for a new preventative indication that had not been awarded to any other drug before.The clinical study of XF-73, which has proven antimicrobial activity, is expected to report an interim review in August 2020. As anti-infectives have higher probabilities of success than other therapeutic areas, Destiny’s destiny looks bright.
Many august healthcare organisations such as the World Health Organisation and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have warned about the shortage of new antimicrobial agents to fight the global threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, many biotech companies have fallen into the trap of developing new anti-infective treatments in indications where there is no unmet medical need, or where generic competition already exists. Destiny Pharma’s novel first drug neatly side-steps all of these issues by developing XF-73 for the prevention of post-surgical staphylococcal infections.
Destiny’s fruitful discussions with the FDA have resulted in recruitment recommencing in earnest and is now up to 77 patients. A smart protocol adaption has been agreed which reduces enrolment to 125 patients without compromising the power of the study’s primary endpoint. The study is now about two thirds enrolled. This is a positive development since it saves Destiny money and time; and should ensure recruitment completion by the end of 2020.
We use a risk-adjusted NPV model to value Destiny Pharma based only on the development costs, our expectations of future milestone and licensing revenues for XF-73, and Destiny’s cash. Our fair value of Destiny Pharma is £86.3m or 197p per share.
Merck is a global science and technology company based in Germany. Co. diversifies its activities into four business divisions: Merck Serono, Consumer Health, Performance Materials and Merck Millipore. The Merck Serono develops, manufactures and markets prescription drugs to treat cancer, multiple sclerosis, infertility, growth disorders, and selected cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. The Consumer Health manufactures and markets over-the-counter drugs addressing health themes such as mobility, women's and children's health, cough and cold. Performance Materials is a specialty chemicals business. The Merck Millipore is the supplier of products and services for the life science industry.
Pfizer is a research-based biopharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and distributing of healthcare products, including medicines and vaccines. The company manages its commercial operations through three businesses: Pfizer Biopharmaceuticals Group, which includes Oncology, Inflammation and Immunology, Rare Disease, Hospital, Vaccines and Internal Medicine business units, as well as a hospital business unit; Upjohn, which includes the company's solid oral dose brands such as Lyrica, Lipitor, Norvasc, Celebrex, Viagra, and certain generic medicines; and Consumer Healthcare, which is an over-the-counter medicines business.
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